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Credit Suisse predicts 4% growth in Poland in 2011-2012


Credit Suisse, the Swiss banking group, expects the Polish economy to expand by around 4% both this year and next, thanks mainly to robust domestic demand, according to an updated forecast published in its latest Emerging Markets Quarterly.

The bank predicts that employment in Poland will rise by an average of 3% y-o-y in the coming quarters and that nominal wage growth will stabilise at around 5% y-o-y. This will support a 2% increase in household spending in 2011 as a whole. On the other hand, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be marginal, while investments are projected to rise by a relatively modest 3.5%.

The main areas of concern (and sources of downside risk for the above scenario) are the persistently high unemployment rate and the slowing of industrial output growth in recent months.

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