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Economic recovery in Poland continues


Latest macroeconomic data show that economic recovery in Poland is continuing. Industrial output is growing at a steadily accelerating pace (in June it expanded at the highest rate since February 2008, i.e. a time when the economy was in a very good shape), while construction output is starting to recover from the slump that it suffered due to a combination of harsh weather conditions and the flood. Although most manufacturing subsectors experienced a marked increase in activity in June, growth was strongest in export-oriented sectors. However, that is not to say that external demand is the only motor of economic expansion. The solid growth in retail sales in June suggests a gradual revival of private consumption, which should be supported by the reversal of negative trends on the labour market observed in recent months (though both wage growth and increases in employment levels remain moderate). We expect a continuation of rapid growth in industrial output in the months ahead, although in the final months of the year the rate of expansion will be tempered by a high reference base. Therefore we forecast that in 2010 as a whole industrial output will rise by 7.6%.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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