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Retail sales growth affected by weather and situation on labour market


We believe that the weakening of retail sales growth in the first months of the year was partly due to weather conditions (a frosty and snowy winter that kept some customers at home, discouraging them from making less urgent purchases). It also reflected the situation on the labour market, i.e. a marked rise in the jobless rate after demand for seasonal work dried up, and several consecutive months of falling real wages. The result was also negatively impacted by the expiry of the German government’s car scrappage incentive scheme, which was a major factor supporting retail sales in Poland in 2009. We expect the rate of retail sales growth to accelerate slightly in the months ahead. However, with the weakness in the labour market set to persist, in 2010 as a whole retail sales growth will be close to zero in real terms.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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