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Very low reference base among reasons for robust January industrial output


2010-03-12

Whilst the robust growth of industrial output observed in January reflects improving economic conditions, it should be kept in mind that the result was also helped by a very low reference base (in January 2009 industrial output plummeted by as much as 15.3% y-o-y). Low base effects should ensure a continuation of solid growth in the next few months as well. Thereafter, however, as the effect disappears, a further strengthening of economic activity will be needed to support this rate of expansion. Therefore we predict that in 2010 industrial output growth will not exceed 5%.



Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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