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Very low reference base among reasons for robust January industrial output


Whilst the robust growth of industrial output observed in January reflects improving economic conditions, it should be kept in mind that the result was also helped by a very low reference base (in January 2009 industrial output plummeted by as much as 15.3% y-o-y). Low base effects should ensure a continuation of solid growth in the next few months as well. Thereafter, however, as the effect disappears, a further strengthening of economic activity will be needed to support this rate of expansion. Therefore we predict that in 2010 industrial output growth will not exceed 5%.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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