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Domestic demand key in helping Poland avoid 2009 recession


2010-01-11

Resilient domestic demand was one of the main factors that helped Poland avoid a recession in 2009, leaving it as the only EU economy with positive GDP growth. After a substantial slowing of the pace of economic growth in the first half of last year, caused by the global crisis, the economic situation in the country began to improve in the latter part of 2009, and the fourth quarter witnessed very clear signs of recovery. This was evident e.g. in retail sales figures for November, which grew at their fastest rate since December 2008. According to our estimates, in 2009 as a whole retail sales (at current prices) rose by 3.4%. We forecast that retail sales growth will accelerate above 4% in 2010. Stronger growth will be hampered by continued weakness in the labour market.



Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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