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Unemployment rate to rise despite improving economy


Despite signs of improving economic conditions, we expect the jobless rate to continue rising in the months ahead. We estimate that at the end of 2009 the registered unemployment rate reached 11.9% and that it would keep rising until the spring, when demand for seasonal work returns. However, a durable improvement can only be expected when the economy accelerates more visibly (experience shows that the Polish economy needs to expand by about 3.5-4% y-o-y to generate new jobs). That is why we forecast that by the end of 2010 the registered unemployment rate will creep up to 12.5%.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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