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July's unexpected rise in retail sales still hard to explain


At this point it is difficult to tell whether the unexpected acceleration in retail sales observed in July was a one-off bounce or whether it reflects improving consumer sentiment and signals a gradual reversal of negative trends. In the coming months sales growth will be supported by statistical factors, thanks to a fast-declining reference base. Therefore, unless the situation on the labour market deteriorates dramatically, retail sales should continue to expand by several percentage points throughout the rest of the year.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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