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Slowing decline in industrial output gives hope for recovery


2009-08-24

In the first seven months of 2009 industrial output slumped by 7.6% y-o-y. In our view, the significant slowing of the pace of decline of industrial output observed in recent months is a sign that the economy is past the worst of the downturn. We expect the improving trend to continue through the remainder of the year. In August we may even see a slight rise in industrial output, due to a much lower reference base. We forecast that in 2009 as a whole industrial output will shrink by 6.2%.



Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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