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Better-than-expected industrial output in June


In the first half of 2009 industrial output slumped by 8.3% y-o-y. Although the better-than-expected industrial output figures for June are partly the consequence of the sharp decrease in inventories observed in the preceding months, they also reflect the levelling-off of negative trends in the Polish economy. We believe that the decline in industrial output has bottomed out, and will remain in the single digits in the coming months. In August (and in the fourth quarter) we may even see a slight increase in production, helped by a very low reference base. According to our forecasts, in 2009 as a whole industrial output will shrink by 6.2%.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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