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Foreign trade not likely to bottom out in upcoming months


With both the eurozone and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in deep recession, one should not expect the falling trend in foreign trade to bottom out abruptly in the coming months. A more significant improvement can only be expected in the fourth quarter, partly due to recovering demand but mainly thanks to a very low reference base. We forecast that in 2009 Polish exports of goods will shrink by 14.4%, while imports will contract by 20%. As a result, the foreign trade deficit will amount to about €13.4bn, i.e. 4.4% of GDP.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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