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Industrial output growth not to exceed H1


In the first eight months of 2008, industrial output rose by 6.7% y-o-y. We believe that the fall reported in August was both a statistical effect (the smaller number of working days than in the previous year) and a consequence of impairing business conditions (this is demonstrated by seasonally adjusted data). Although we expect a significant bounce in September, when the impact of the number of working days will be positive, industrial output growth will not be as high as in H1. According to our forecasts, industrial output will increase by 7.2% throughout 2008.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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