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Lewiatan Business Index holds steady in February


2011-03-04



The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index remained unchanged at 55 points in February, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. At the same time, the quarterly index shed two points compared with January and amounted to 46 points.

The annual index thus remained above the 50 mark for the second consecutive month, indicating that economic conditions should at least remain as strong as last year, PKPP experts said. However, they cautioned that the fall in the quarterly index suggests a certain weakening of economic activity is likely in the first quarter. That is because the surge in consumption that occurred in late 2010 is unlikely to have persisted into Q1; and furthermore, there is no upturn as yet in gross fixed capital formation, reflecting companies’ uncertainty about the strength of demand. Nevertheless, the Confederation expects that a mixture of positive real wage growth (made possible by sharp gains in labour productivity) and recovery on the labour market will help maintain consumption and demand at current growth levels in the quarters ahead, which should encourage companies to invest more. The main downside risk is a deterioration in the external environment.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.



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